India's economic growth and energy security are now exposed to the volatility brought about by the Middle East conflict. By slashing imports of discounted Russian oil, courtesy Trump's arm twisting and enhancing purchase of highly priced Middle Eastern and US crude, India has made itself acutely vulnerable to rising oil prices and to disruptions of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly half of India's oil and two thirds of its LNG imports pass through this crucial waterway. The vulnerability is even more acute for cooking gas (LPG) as 85% of India's LPG is sourced from the Gulf. Unlike crude, India maintains no strategic reserves of LPG, meaning any disruption in supplies would have a catastrophic effect on households and jack up inflation to stratospheric levels. With only optics, theatrics and forced hugs instead of a coherent foreign policy/astute diplomacy India is caught between a rock and a hard place. The coming days don't bode well for India if the Middle East war enters a prolonged phase.
